President Trump’s decision on the Section 201 solar trade case could have been worse for the U.S. solar market -- but it certainly isn’t good news.

The administration unveiled tariffs yesterday that were less severe than the remedies requested by trade case petitioners Suniva and SolarWorld Americas. Trump ultimately approved a 30 percent solar import tariff for crystalline-silicon solar cells and modules, which steps down by 5 percentage points each year to 15 percent by the fourth year. In addition, 2.5 gigawatts of cells are exempt from the tariffs each year.

So what does this mean for the U.S. solar industry?

“Essentially, this has a meaningful but not destructive impact on solar installations, and at the same time it’s not exceptionally encouraging for domestic solar cell and module manufacturing,” said MJ Shiao, head of Americas research for GTM Research. “Some people look at it as a win-win; some people look at it as a lose-lose.”

GTM Research issued a revised forecast today that finds the U.S. solar market will see a net reduction in installations of around 11 percent as a result of the new tariffs. That translates to a cumulative 61.3 gigawatts of solar deployed over the next five years compared to an original projection of 68.9 gigawatts, for a 7.6-gigawatt reduction in installed solar PV capacity between 2018 and 2022.

The tariffs result in an average 10 cent per watt increase in year 1 prices for modules, stepping down to a 4 cent per watt premium by year 4.

Utility-scale solar will take the brunt of the impact, accounting for 65 percent of the anticipated 7.6-gigawatt decline. 2019 is expected to be the most painful year for the utility-scale sector, with a 1.6-gigawatt decline in installations compared to GTM Research’s original forecast. 2018 is relatively insulated from the tariffs, with a forecast decline of 525 megawatts, because many installers locked in their module orders early in anticipation of trade action.